Saturday AM: Refresh for chart and more analysisThe wait is over as the 25th Bond finally hit U.S. movie screens yesterday grossing $23.3M, including $6.3M previews, on its way to a weekend of $60M at 4,407 theaters. This is where tracking spotted Daniel Craig’s swan song as 007, and as we continually wrote, if Bond was going to overperform, it would mean that an overabundance of older moviegoers (45+) came out. Bond inherently is a property that skews older, and not younger like the Marvel properties. CNBC brazenly, and incorrectly, declared that No Time to Die was poised to make $100M at the domestic B.O., and that number was never in any rival studio or MGM/United Artist Releasing’s calculations. Even though advance ticket sales were outpacing Venom: Let There Be Carnage, in the pandemic era all box office forecasting has been thrown off course. That in addition to the fact that in general pandemic moviegoers make their decisions to go to the theater largely the day, not in advance. The multiple release date changes on Bond and the publicity of the film being Craig’s last in the tuxedo certainly hyped up box office expectations, but understand that this was always IP intended for older moviegoers. Rival distribution brass isn’t throwing any shade on No Time to Die‘s opening, even though it’s the third-best currently behind Skyfall ($88.3M) and Spectre ($70.4M); in fact, they’re thrilled.
“In an October where Venom 2 can open to $90M, then Bond to $60M, Halloween Kills to $40M, and Dune to $30M+, that’s fantastic,” said one non-MGM suit to me yesterday. Again, Monday morning isn’t a time for streamers to take a victory lap: Moviegoing is waking up, especially coming off of last weekend. Consider the fact that No Time to Die‘s opening is right around where Mission: Impossible – Fallout ($61.2M) and Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation ($55.5M) opened stateside. That’s the wheelhouse for these older leaning spy action films.
Other things to know about Bond:
–This is the longest Bond ever at 2 hours and 43 minutes. While time never slowed down box office for the latest Star Wars or Avengers movies, it does play into whether or not the older folks come out. Comscore/Screen Engine shows that 37% of No Time to Die‘s ticket buyers were over 45, proportionally a higher share than Spectre‘s 29%.
–Bond always makes his lion share abroad and many are very encouraged and thrilled by the pic’s offshore estimated tally through last week of $150M. Nancy will have an update soon on how No Time to Die is doing this weekend. Seventy-seven percent of Spectre‘s global B.O. came from foreign, 73% for Skyfall, 71% for Quantum of Solace, and 73% for Casino Royale. I hear the Imax holds in offshore markets are fantastic: ~-20% on Scandinavia, -30% in the UK, and -20% in Singapore and Taiwan.
–The latest Bond gets an A- CinemaScore, which is the same as Spectre, Casino Royale, and even Pierce Brosnan’s finale as Bond, Die Another Day. It’s higher than Quantum of Solace, the lowest graded of the Craig movies at B-, yet under Skyfall which landed an A. No Time to Die clocked an 81% positive score on PostTrak, and a 62% definite recommend. Males came out at 64%, with 57% over 35. Fifty-two percent were Caucasian, 17% Latino and Hispanic, 13% Black, and 18% Asian/other. The movie played best on the coasts and saw Imax and PLFs delivering close to 40% of its ticket sales to date.
–Bond movies are a slow burn at the box office, and known for their legs. Casino Royale had over a 4x multiple off its domestic opening, Skyfall 3.4x, and Spectre close to 3x. Second weekend holds on previous Craig Bond pics were -52% on Spectre and -53% on Skyfall.
EntTelligence reports that approximately 4.5M patrons are estimated to see No Time to Die this weekend. Over 400k came out during pre-release shows. Last weekend’s Venom: Let There Be Carnage had 24% more seats in Large Format and 17% more overall next to No Time to Die, which is also on account of the Sony/Marvel title’s shorter runtime. On opening day, 22% of patrons saw No Time to Die in Large Format vs. Venom 2‘s opening day which saw 26% from those auditoriums.
Friday AM: United Artist Releasing/MGM/Eon’s No Time to Die clocked $6.3 million from Thursday box office previews that began at 4 p.m., making it the best Bond domestic preview number ever — 19% ahead of Spectre‘s $5.25M six years ago.
The figure also exceeds the preview nights of previous Daniel Craig 007 movies Skyfall ($4.6M off midnight shows) and Quantum of Solace ($2.5M off 8 p.m. showtimes).
While No Time to Die‘s number is lower than last Thursday’s $11.6M charted by Venom: Let There Be Carnage (the second-best preview night during the pandemic after Black Widow‘s $13.2M), note that Venom skewed more broadly with Hispanic and Latino audiences and younger. Bond is dependent on older adult audiences, and should they show up this weekend, the pic will over-index. Spectre saw an audience that was 29% over 45 and 15% over 55. As we previously reported, NRG has observed that the Covid comfort levels for the older moviegoing demo have improved.
Conservative estimates for No Time to Die, which was delayed 19 months due to Covid, are in the $55M-$60M range in U.S. and Canada and $150M worldwide for its second global weekend, eyeing a potential running grand total of $300M. Anything higher stateside relies on a significant amount of walk-up business by older males, but the pic’s advance ticket sales on Fandango already are the best for Bond and ahead of Venom 2. The top openings for Craig’s bond films are Skyfall ($88.3M), Spectre ($70.4M), Quantum of Solace ($67.5M) and Casino Royale ($40.8M). Overseas box office for No Time to Die to date is estimated to be north of $150M via a majority of Universal and a handful of MGM territories.
As we reported Thursday, the 25th Bond’s delayed brand promo campaign, which includes Aston Martin, Jaguar Land Rover, Chopard, Triumph motorcycles and more, is delivering $150M in cross-ad value. That doesn’t include global P&A spend, which is well north of $150M, I understand. Among Craig’s Bond canon, No Time to Die is third-best-reviewed at 84% certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes after Casino Royale‘s 94%, and Skyfall‘s 92%. Quantum of Solace and Spectre are the least favored by critics at 64% and 63%, respectively.
Sony, which cedes its Venom 2 Imax and PLF screens on to Bond in the States, is seeing the first week for the Marvel sequel of $109.7M after a $3.4M Thursday at 4,225 theaters. Venom 2 is expected to make around $36M in Weekend 2 stateside for a 60% decline.